TSMC Started to Run An Economic Model for Better Development

Published:2011/6/12 22:58:00 Author:Phyllis From:SeekIC

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company had a 0.7 percent fell on its unsolidated net sales in May, which was unusual, however, compared with sales in May it’s been 6.3 percent up. This was led by the aftermath of the Japan earthquake and tsunami, as well as the appreciation of Taiwan dollar, which impacts the competitiveness.

Over the last decade, TSMC has posted sales up 5 to 6 percent on April of those years on average. So a sequential decline is below trend but it is line with a similar drop announced by rival UMC. But TSMC’s slip was less than that of UMC, which means that TSMC continues to gain market share from UMC.

TSMC didn’t expect any short-to-medium term supply-side disruption from the aftermath of the Japan earthquake and tsunami. Considering the declines of the GSA & IET International Semiconductor Forum, TSMC had secured all the required prime wafer supply. Despite the close down of a Shin-Etsu plant in northern Japan that is reportedly responsible for about 20 percent of the 300 mm diameter raw wafers. That plant would recover its capacity to the level before the earthquake and tsunami by the end of June to early July.

The impact on the supply-side is little except on the chipmaking equipment as the lead times of that are very long. However, the disaster do have some effects on the demand-side. The decrease of output caused by the shortage of component can affect the demand. Nonetheless TSMC has not reduced its second quarter or whole year guidance. It is expected to achieve 20 percent revenue growth in 2011.

It has run its economic model and cut its 2011 global semiconductor market growth to 2 percent from previous 4 percent. However, TSMC still holds confidence in the the foundry chip market’s 11 percent growth. This estimate takes all other market researchers by surprise as they predict growth only in the range of 5 to 10 percent.

The economic model regards global and regional gross domestic product figures as primary inputs. TSMC has reduced its GDP growth in 2011 from 3.6 percent to 2.8 percent because of two reasons. First is the influence from weak national economies of Europe. This problem is not only caused by those countries that are of minor impact on the global scales.TSMC believes that these problems are also from countries with much larger economies like Italy, Span and the United Kingdom. The combined European weakness will drag the global economy down. The second factor is the Indian and Chinese economies where anti-inflation measures are being taken and beginning to show the market. The earthquake on March 11 in Japan is also likely to reduce GDP in that major economy. As a result TSMC has reduces its estimate for growth in electronic products market from 9 to 6 percent. Within this category TSMC has reduced its growth estimate handsets form 9 to 7 percent and digital consumer electronics from 6 to 3 percent. The related integrated circuit is MURP20040CT.

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